Banca de DEFESA: BRENDA MARCELLO SCHMIDT AGOSTINHO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : BRENDA MARCELLO SCHMIDT AGOSTINHO
DATE: 26/06/2023
TIME: 10:00
LOCAL: meet.google.com/fqh-uaaw-bby
TITLE:

ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT ON THE SETTLEMENT PRICE OF DIFFERENCES CAUSED BY DEVIATIONS IN FLOW FORECAST

PAGES: 96
BIG AREA: Outra
AREA: Multidisciplinar
SUMMARY:

Brazilian energy matrix is one of the most renewable in the world. Hydroelectric generation had already represented more than 90% of all production. Today it represents 50% to 75% of the energy supply. It causes an undeniable hydrologic and climatic condition dependence. This dependence has been reduced over time by the expansion of the generation park with termal generation basis establishment and alternative sources increase, especially wind power since 2015. Considering this macro characteristic of the Brazilian matrix, there is a dependence between power supply security, hydrological conditions, and energy price. Therefore, it is necessary to plan the operation of available energy resources so that uncertainties regarding future water availability are adequately managed in each planning period. The operation planning policies have as their main input variable the prediction of future inflows, and, as an output variable, an indicator for the operation of the system and the price of electricity. The goal of this work was to analyze the impact of errors in forecasting affluent flow in terms of its impact on the Marginal Cost of Operation, comparing operating scenarios with data on affluent flows predicted for the period in relation to actual and historical data. Four weekly price simulations were performed for the year of 2021, changing the monthly flows and the storage level of the reservoirs. For this purpose, current computational models in the Brazilian electricity sector were used, and the analysis of the results obtained show that errors in forecasting inflows have a small impact on price definition, but on the other hand, it can be seen that the operating characteristics of the system, such as the characteristics of the electrical system modeling, the level of the hydroelectric plants' reservoirs, and the rules and conditions imposed on the operation proved to be variables as important as the affluent flows available to the hydroelectric plants in the planning period. It is expected that the analyzes carried out can help decision makers to opt for strategies and improvements in the computational models responsible for determining the operating policies of the electricity sector, with the aim of minimizing the volatilities in electricity prices, and consequently bringing more energy security to the country.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - Interno ao Programa - 1544340 - PATRICIA TEIXEIRA LEITE ASANO
Membro Titular - Examinador(a) Interno ao Programa - 1734918 - PAULO HENRIQUE DE MELLO SANT ANA
Membro Titular - Examinador(a) Externo ao Programa - 721.478.571-49 - HUGO VALADARES SIQUEIRA - UTFPR
Membro Suplente - Examinador(a) Interno ao Programa - 1876380 - THALES SOUSA
Membro Suplente - Examinador(a) Externo à Instituição - RODRIGO SACCHI - USP