ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT ON THE SETTLEMENT PRICE OF DIFFERENCES CAUSED BY DEVIATIONS IN FLOW FORECAST
Brazilian energy matrix is one of the most renewable in the world. Hydroelectric generation had already represented more than 90% of all production. Today it represents 60% to 70% of the energy supply. It causes an undeniable hydrologic and climatic condition dependence. This dependence has been reduced over time by the expansion of the generation park with termal generation basis establishment and alternative sources increase, especially wind power. Despite hydraulic source representativeness has been reduced, operation planning policies consider future inflows as an important variable, which directly impacts in the definition of the energy price. The analysis of climate and hydrologic real impact in the energy price is one of the goals of this work and in order to do it, it was done by the comparison of energy price in four different scenarios. Four weekly price simulations were performed for the year of 2021, changing the monthly flows and the storage level of the reservoirs. Some important conclusions from the evaluation of the scenarios were that the river inflow forecast errors had little impact on the price definition since in absolute values, the accumulated errors were only 6%. In addition, the water level in the reservoirs proved to be as important as water flow.