PPGENE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ENERGIA FUNDAÇÃO UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO ABC Phone: Not available http://propg.ufabc.edu.br/ppgene

Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: JOSÉ FERNANDO DE TOLEDO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : JOSÉ FERNANDO DE TOLEDO
DATA : 20/12/2021
HORA: 14:00
LOCAL: meet.google.com/hbn-pyyx-uny
TÍTULO:
MACHINE LEARNING MODELS WITH CLIMATE INDICATORS FOR THE GENERATION OF NATURAL FLOW SCENARIOS

PÁGINAS: 50
GRANDE ÁREA: Outra
ÁREA: Multidisciplinar
RESUMO:

    In order to plan the operation of the Brazilian Electric System, computational models are used, which provide input data, on the future availability of water in the reservoirs of the Hydroelectric Power Plants, the availability of thermal power plants and the forecast load for the period. As output data, the execution models include the scheduling of the Plants (Dispatch) and the Marginal Operating Cost - CMO (cost per unit of energy adequate to meet an increase in the load on the system). It should be noted that the future availability of water in the reservoirs is associated with the randomness of the flows affluent to them, with forecast models that provide inflow scenarios available. There is a strong dependence on the climate in this process, as variations in average preference and temperature directly impact the availability of water available for energy generation. In this work, the influence of the use of regional and teleconnections climate indicators in flow forecasting models was investigated, using Machine Learning techniques and autoregressive models with exogenous variables, for twelve Hydroelectric Power Plants in the Brazilian territory. The results indicated that there is a correlation of some indicators for preference, with the adoption of the method in predictive models appearing to be promising.


MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - Interno ao Programa - 1544340 - PATRICIA TEIXEIRA LEITE ASANO
Membro Titular - Examinador(a) Interno ao Programa - 1545354 - RICARDO CANELOI DOS SANTOS
Membro Titular - Examinador(a) Externo à Instituição - RODRIGO ROSA AZAMBUJA
Membro Suplente - Examinador(a) Interno ao Programa - 2286312 - JOEL DAVID MELO TRUJILLO
Membro Suplente - Examinador(a) Externo à Instituição - JACYRO GRAMULIA JUNIOR - IFSP
Notícia cadastrada em: 10/12/2021 19:50
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