Second homes and inequalities in the production of coastal urban space: analysis and simulation of residential dynamics in the municipality of Praia Grande (SP), Brazil.
Second homes are highly disseminated along the large agglomerations of the Brazilian coast. Even with the existing controversies, this phenomenon is supported by positive characteristics in the territory, among them, benefits for regional economies, and stimulus to the heritage and cultural value of the territory. On the other hand, the phenomenon is questioned because it accentuates the pace of real estate speculation and spatial segregation processes. This research sought to deepen the understanding of second homes and their relationships with other forms of residential occupation, in particular, those marked by precarious housing, through an investigation by spatial analysis and trends scenarios of land use and land cover in the coastal municipality of Praia Grande (SP). Modeling has shown great potential in the analysis of land use changes in space and time, from the perspective of structuring discussions, building scenarios, and generating hypotheses in order to contribute to the current challenges of the urban planners' agenda. The investigation of the spatial patterns of the transformations that took place between 2000 and 2010 and the construction of the “trend” and “pessimistic” scenario resulted in the prognosis of continuity in urban growth based on segregation and social exclusion. The results also supported the construction of the “optimistic” scenario to support reflection on urban planning practices through its zoning as a vision itself. The research showed that in Praia Grande (SP), when going through a process of decreasing the density of second homes, it has been missing the opportunity to strengthen and incorporate the most vulnerable low-income population in the city in a fairer and more democratic way.