Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: PEDRO DE BARROS BELLA E SOUZA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : PEDRO DE BARROS BELLA E SOUZA
DATA : 16/08/2019
HORA: 18:00
LOCAL: Sala S106, 1º andar, Bloco Alfa 2, Campus SBC da Fundação Universidade Federal do ABC, localizada na Alameda da Universidade, s/n, Bairro Anchieta - São Bernardo do Campo, SP.
TÍTULO:

The effects of hysteresis on the conventions of the Brazilian base interest rate

PÁGINAS: 25
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
ÁREA: Economia
SUBÁREA: Economia Monetária e Fiscal
ESPECIALIDADE: Teoria Monetária e Financeira
RESUMO:

Historically interest rates in Brazil remain at a high level, this is evidenced by observing the trajectory of Selic, brazillian Central Bank base rate. Post-keynesian theory states that the pricing of interest is based on conventions about the current state and expectations about the future. This is due the relationship between the individual's perception of the data to which he has access and on which he has a greater or lesser degree of certainty, which constitutes his direct knowledge, and expectations regarding what will happen in the future, indirect knowledge. Conventions are for Keynes part of direct knowledge and therefore part of what agents take into account in forming their expectations. In executing the monetary policy, the Central Bank acts on the creation of conventions that absorb the expectations of the agents. In order to analyze the conventions on interest rates over time, the concept of hysteresis will be used, which considers that the current values of a given variable are partly explained by their previous values. This happens after the event of an exogenous shock that has its effects sprinkled by time which leads to an influence on the current values arising from past events. In the case of high interest rates persistence, the objective of this work is to analyze, based on time series models, the existence of hysteresis in the formation of conventions by the agents that would help to understand the historic permanence of interest rates at this level.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - Interno ao Programa - 1675686 - FABIO HENRIQUE BITTES TERRA
Membro Titular - Examinador(a) Interno ao Programa - 2206863 - PATRICIA HELENA FERNANDES CUNHA
Membro Titular - Examinador(a) Externo ao Programa - 2081225 - FERNANDA GRAZIELLA CARDOSO
Membro Suplente - Examinador(a) Interno ao Programa - 1771615 - BRUNO DE PAULA ROCHA