Spatial modelling of the urban expansion in the Municipality of Ilha Comprida (Long Island) - SP
This dissertation studies the urban expansion between 2010 and 2018 in the municipality of Ilha Comprida, located on the south coast of the state of São Paulo, through the application of the weight of evidence method by Dinamica EGO software, with the objective of evaluating de main variables involved in the transition from non-urban land use to urban use. The categorical variables of vegetation, soil and urban zoning were studied, as well as the variables of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), distance to the edge of the municipality, coast line, road system, drainage and photographic points of interest. The results showed that areas of exposed soil, agriculture, sandy deposits, grasses and areas close to urban spots have a high probability of transition to urban use, while this probability decreases in areas close to the coastline and drainage, except for the 30m range, which presented a positive probability of transition to urban use. Analysis of the influence of NDVI indicates that areas classified as non-vegetation (between -1 and 0) have negative influence for expansion, while positive weights appear in the range between 0.3 and 0.7. Finally, it was also possible to verify that the zoning proposed by decree nº 30.817/1989 may have contributed to contain the expansion in areas more restrictive to a land subdivision, such as in the case of Special Protection Zone (ZPE) and Wildlife Zone (ZVS). However, Occupied Zone 2 (ZOC2), of urban use, has presented low expansion potential, pointing out the need to further study the variables that may be contributing to not development of urban uses in this area. In the end, the model generated a land use change probability map for the studied transitions.