Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: ANTONIO CARLOS NOGUERO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ANTONIO CARLOS NOGUERO
DATE: 13/12/2024
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: SBC Online
TITLE:

Confidence and Economic Growth: The Brazilian Case

PAGES: 38
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUBÁREA: Métodos Quantitativos em Economia
SPECIALTY: Métodos e Modelos Matemáticos, Econométricos e Estatísticos
SUMMARY:

This study investigates the relationship between the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and economic growth in Brazil using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The model employed captures both short and long-term relationships among the CCI, GDP (proxied by the Economic Activity Index – IBC-Br), the Consumer Price Index (IPC), and the Selic interest rate, over the period from 2005 to 2024. The results indicate the existence of a long-term relationship among the variables analyzed, with the CCI emerging as a significant predictor of Brazil’s economic performance. The impulse response functions estimated reveal that positive shocks to consumer confidence lead to immediate and significant increases in GDP, with effects persisting for up to five periods before stabilizing. Variance decomposition reinforces the influence of the CCI, explaining up to 33% of GDP variance in the short term. These findings underscore the crucial role of consumer sentiment as a leading indicator of economic activity in Brazil, especially in contexts of volatility.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - Interno ao Programa - 1763482 - GUILHERME DE OLIVEIRA LIMA CAGLIARI MARQUES
Membro Titular - Examinador(a) Interno ao Programa - 1479413 - ANA LUISA GOUVEA ABRAS
Membro Titular - Examinador(a) Interno ao Programa - 1318146 - MAXIMILIANO BARBOSA DA SILVA
Membro Suplente - Examinador(a) Interno ao Programa - 2206863 - PATRICIA HELENA FERNANDES CUNHA