Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: BEATRICE MIKA SAITO
Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.DISCENTE : BEATRICE MIKA SAITO
DATA : 07/08/2025
HORA: 10:00
LOCAL: https://conferenciaweb.rnp.br/sala/vitor-9
TÍTULO:
Landslides drivers and thresholds: a comparative study of Brazilian municipalities
PÁGINAS: 50
RESUMO:
This master dissertation aims to evaluate the predictive potential of precipitation and temperature variables for landslide occurrence, with an initial application in the municipality of Santos, São Paulo (Brazil), followed by a comparison with other municipalities in Brazil. While there remains a need for locally adapted early warning approaches, this study addresses a gap in the literature by testing predictive models calibrated to the conditions of municipalities in developing countries. Logistic Regression and XGBoost models were initially applied using lagged precipitation and temperature as predictors. Monotonic constraints were included in the XGBoost model to reflect domain knowledge. Both models were evaluated using nested cross-validation with hyperparameter tuning. Partial dependence plots were used to interpret variable influence. Results indicate that rainfall on the day of the event is the most significant predictor, while higher temperatures are associated with reduced landslide risk. A Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) will be explored in future stages. Environmental and socio-environmental variables, including slope, soil, geology, vegetation, land use, and the presence of informal settlements, will be incorporated to contextualize meteorological triggers and to support future comparisons across municipalities.
MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - Interno ao Programa - 2548506 - VITOR VIEIRA VASCONCELOS
Membro Titular - Examinador(a) Interno ao Programa - 1876379 - MARIA CLEOFE VALVERDE BRAMBILA
Membro Titular - Examinador(a) Externo à Instituição - FLÁVIO EDUARDO AOKI HORITA
Membro Suplente - Examinador(a) Interno ao Programa - 1809834 - ANDREA DE OLIVEIRA CARDOSO
Membro Suplente - Examinador(a) Externo ao Programa - 1671577 - CLAUDIA FRANCISCA ESCOBAR DE PAIVA